The Balkans will be like the Middle East

Because of the ‘urban heat island effect’ cities are already warmer than their rural surroundings. If we do not curb emissions (Business-As-Usual scenario – RCP 8.5) by 2100 they will be much hotter still. Climate Central in 2017 created the interactive map below in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization.

Under the BAU-scenario cities in the Balkans will experience the most extreme temperature rise, varying between 7.5°C and 8.5°C increase. For example Budapest will reach an average summer daily maximum temperature of 32.2 °C (from 24.8°C ), Sofia 32.6°C (from 24.3°C) and Bucharest 36.4°C (from 28.1°C ). Temperature-wise this would transform the Balkans into the Middle East.

At their turn some cities in the Middle East will get so hot that they have no current-day equivalents. For example, Riyadh will reach 48 °C Celsius and Baghdad a blistering 49,5 °C .

The temperatures in the graph refer to average daily maximum temperatures over June, July and August on the Northern Hemisphere (Dec, Jan & Feb on the Southern Hemisphere).

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